Margin of error

An SAT Math micro-topic under Data inferences (Problem solving and data analysis). Free to read — no account needed.

A margin of error tells you how far the true value might be from the estimate.
You subtract the margin to get the lower bound and add it to get the upper bound.
That band is the range of plausible values, called the confidence interval.
margin_of_error.png
The figure shows an estimate with its margin of error.
The interval reaches the margin below the estimate and the margin above it.
The true value is likely to lie somewhere inside that band.
To build the interval, take the estimate and go the margin below and above.
A poll of 78%78\% with a margin of 4%4\% gives 78−4=74%78 - 4 = 74\% to 78+4=82%78 + 4 = 82\%.
A plausible value must lie in that range.
You can also work backward from an interval.
If the interval runs from 58%58\% to 70%70\%, the estimate is the center, 64%64\%, and the margin is half the width, 6%6\%.
A wider interval means a larger margin of error.

Worked examples

A poll shows 60%60\% support with a margin of error of 4%4\%. What is the likely range?
Subtract and add the margin: 60−4=56%60 - 4 = 56\% and 60+4=64%60 + 4 = 64\%.
So the range is 56%56\% to 64%64\%.
A poll of 12001200 voters shows 55%55\% support with a margin of error of 3%3\%. What is the likely range in number of voters?
The percentage range is 52%52\% to 58%58\%.
In voters, that is 52%52\% of 1200=6241200 = 624 up to 58%58\% of 1200=6961200 = 696.
A confidence interval runs from 62%62\% to 66%66\%. What are the estimate and the margin of error?
The estimate is the center: 62+662=64%\frac{62 + 66}{2} = 64\%.
The margin is half the width: 66−622=2%\frac{66 - 62}{2} = 2\%.

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